From the Prince of Darkness:
Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a rising Republican star in Congress, is on the short list to be University of Missouri president. That raises the possibility of Democrats picking up his House seat representing Missouri’s Little Dixie.Hulshof won the once solidly Democratic seat in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote and was given a coveted membership on the House Ways and Means Committee. Hulshof has won recent elections with over 61 percent (even in 2006, when Democrats were winning elsewhere in Missouri and a state Senate seat in the district was lost by the Republicans).
Missouri Republican strategists worry that it would be difficult to retain the district in a special election if Hulshof takes the university post.
While Bush won this district by 55/42 and 59/41 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, it was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years from 1977-1997. A special election with a strong local Democratic candidate could prove to be a rockin’ good time. In fact, special elections in both this district and Arizona’s 1st district could give Tom Cole and the NRCC brain trust migraines this summer, should they happen.
Now, I have a question for the SSP brain trust: how well did Claire McCaskill perform in this district last November?
UPDATE (David): Man, I knew someone would come up with the answer! Major props to MORawn for crunching the numbers: in 2006, McCaskill got 46% in MO-09, to Talent’s 54%. That jives with pcd’s slightly rougher calculation. So, a tough row to hoe even for a top-shelf candidate, given that last year’s senate race was a high-water mark for us. But an open seat is always a game-changer.
Race Tracker: MO-09
This would be a good opportunity for Democrats to gain more ground in this state. Hopefully, there is a good candidate that could run if this seat opens up.
there are three so far, and with so many mayoral primaries and house members running, we’re bound to get another special election then there’s this. it seems a bit weird to have so many special elections so early into the session.
This was nothing but a Democratic district until Hulshof upset Volckmer in 1996. We would need a pro-life an pro-gun populist Dem to win.
I think looking at the election data, is that Talen got somewhere between 53-55 in the district, but he was an incumebent. An open seat could fall the the right Democrat
those rural counties on the west side of the mississippi from missouri through louisiana are interesting anomalies: all tend to be democratic. i think it is the river, and i believe it is the result of trade and exposure to outsiders throughout history. i will try to calculate.
give me a few minutes.
missouri sos does not have results listed by precinct, which requires me to take the total number for the st. charles county and to multiple it by the percentage of votes cast for MO-09 in st. charles county. louisiana lists results by precinct, and missouri should do the same.
my totals for talent and mccaskill only, as i exclude the libertarian and progressive candidate, are 125,704 for talent and 110,106 for mccaskill. talent won MO-09 with 53.3% of the vote.
notice boone county, the population center of MO-09 cast its vote for mccaskill.
In the 9th District, McCaskill got 46.18% of the two-party vote. Montee (state auditor) took 53.36%. Amendment 2 (Stem Cell) was at 47.87%.
In 2004, Kerry got crushed by Bush 40.97 – 59.03%.
The 9th District has voted 5.2% more for Republicans at the top of the ticket during the ’04 and ’06 Cycles than the state of Missouri, as a whole, and has a PVI of R+7.
Even if Hulshof leaves office, a Dem pickup here would be a bit of a stretch.
According to this, which is one of my favorite things on the Internet (click on “state by state,” then on “Missouri”), Boone and Pike are the only counties in the district where McCaskill beat Talent. Most other counties went to Talent by 8-12 points.
Kerry did terrible in the rural areas of missouri.Bush only got 55% here in 2000, well within the range of a Democratic take over, at least for a rural district, maybe not for a suburban district. But, another thing to consider is that Talent repsented a district just south of this one so this was his turf. he was a U.s. in Todd akin’s district for a couple of terms. so, east Missouri, outside of the heavily black and labor St. Louis and it’s inner suburbs, is Talent’s turf. McCaskill did well in West Missouri. Can someone tell me just how large her landslide in Emmaneul cleaver’s district was. I know from Cq. Politics.com that she narrowly won Sam Graves formerly Democratic district which hated Kerry and gave Bush 57% of the vote. Of course forty percent of the population lived in a sliver of Kansas City and it’s suburban portions that fall in this district, and that was McCaskill’s turf. Still 50-46 is still slightly more Democratic as the state as whole. Kerry was crushed in the rural areas, and failed to win the suburbs. Here, McCaskill successfully held down Talent’s margin in the rural areas more so that in other parts of the state and won big in the suburbs and by a bigger than normal margin in St. Joseph. Huh…If only it was sam Graves and not Hulshof considering retirement for the position of President of the University of Missouri.